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The Case of the Calm Number

Oct 14, 2026 · 0:35

Inspector Hale: headline inflation 3.7%, core 2.6%. Wren: core? The Ledger: core drops food and energy, the volatile parts; 2.6% against a 2.5% forecast, barely a tremor. Wren: so the gap is gasoline and groceries. Nightjar: the gap is food and energy. Wren: core is calm; the gas pump isn't.

Strip out food and energy and September's prices were up 2.6% on the year, a tenth above the 2.5% forecast but far below the 3.7% headline: the gap between the two numbers is food and energy, and gasoline led the rise.

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Walter Bloomberg post: U.S. INFLATION SURGES TO 3.7%, BEATING EXPECTATIONS. Core CPI climbed 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected, with annual core inflation reaching 2.6% vs. 2.5% forecast.

X · Oct 14, 2026

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