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Ship It Before They Want It

Oct 2, 2026 · 0:33

A case study from Prediction Machines: what happens to Amazon's business model when its guesses get good enough to ship before you shop. Dougie has a plan.

The book's Amazon thought experiment: recommendations are right one time in twenty today, but turn prediction accuracy up far enough and it pays to ship goods before customers order them, with returns collected weekly; Amazon patented 'anticipatory shipping' in 2013.

On the book: Prediction Machines by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, Avi Goldfarb

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Prediction Machines

Harvard Business Review Press · Jan 1, 2018

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