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Mossy Hollow

Their Fastest Guess

Oct 14, 2026 · 0:28

Ren runs up: robots won't be cheaper than us until 2050. Granny Ume: so one study says, and that is their fastest guess. Mio: fastest? Granny: prices falling four times faster than before, and half the work still waits until 2050. Poko: Poko works free.

Even in the Anthropic study's fastest scenario, with robot costs falling up to four times faster than they have historically and robots learning new tasks twice as fast, robots would not be cheaper than people for half of today's physical work until 2050.

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unusual_whales post: Robots can already do about 3/4 of physical job tasks in the US, per Anthropic. But they're cheaper than a human for just 0.3% of them.

X · Oct 14, 2026

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