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The Sugarbolts

A Darwin Moment

Oct 16, 2026 · 0:33

The city of Ledgerville, where data-centre bonds just hit what Allianz's investment chief calls their Darwin moment. Mayor Pennywhistle: I'm doomed! Baron Von Bottomline: a temporary recalibration of the AI monetisation timeline! Dash: translation, OpenAI delayed its listing and Anthropic's growth slowed. Pop: the strong ones still stand. Zap: CoreWeave's bonds sank to seventy-five cents.

The slide in AI data-centre bonds has a trigger and a name: it followed OpenAI's decision to delay its stock market debut until next year and a slowdown in Anthropic's quarterly sales growth; Allianz's investment chief calls it the bonds' 'Darwin moment', in which the weakest credits struggle to survive, CoreWeave's bonds have sunk as low as 75 cents on the dollar with yields above 15%, and states including New York and Texas are now restricting new data centres over water, noise and air pollution.

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Mohamed A. El-Erian post: From the @FT: "Prices of bonds issued to fund prominent data centres where Meta, Nvidia, Oracle and others will become tenants — such as “Hyperion” and “Project Excalibur” — have fallen well below par in recent weeks."

X · Oct 15, 2026

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